Covid-19: how the English variant upsets the forecasts


DECRYPTION – The English variant progresses with exponential dynamics. With the current restrictive measures, the number of hospitalizations will probably exceed the peak of the second wave in March.

The calm before the storm… This month of January gives an unpleasant feeling of déjà vu. The epidemic situation remains very fragile. The number of new daily contaminations hovers around 20,000, when hospitalizations and intensive care admissions have been on the rise for about ten days. The reproduction rate of the virus, in other words the effective R, is estimated at 1.19 by Public Health France. Which means the epidemic is progressing. The increase is certainly less strong than that which we were able to know last November, and it is still too early to measure the effects of the curfew at 6 p.m., but the projections of epidemiologists are not very encouraging.

We should reach a level of tension in hospitals equivalent to that of the second confinement by mid-February.

Vittoria Colizza, Research Director at Inserm

“If there had not been the threat of new variants, the situation could have stabilized for the next few weeks”, analysis Vittoria Colizza, research director at Inserm and specialist in modeling infectious diseases. She just published a modeling report

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