DECRYPTION – Despite positive signals, most epidemiologists are quite pessimistic about the next few weeks.
While containment seemed inevitable a fortnight ago, the dreaded explosion of the epidemic has not taken place. Better still, the curves have stopped their upward trajectories since the end of January.
Whether on the number of cases, daily admissions to hospital and intensive care units, all of these indicators are on a high plateau. Some even tend to a slight decrease. Proof that the generalized curfew at 6 p.m. produces a significant effect. Proof also that on the whole, the French respect the barrier gestures and the isolation instructions. “Behaviors changed after the return from the Christmas holidays, analysis Vittoria Colizza, research director at the Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health in Paris. We have also seen a decrease in mobility, linked to the curfew but probably also to preventive behavior by the French. ”
Despite these positive signals, most epidemiologists
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