Covid-19: towards a more peaceful end of the year


DECRYPTION – While the epidemic has been decreasing for several weeks, the government is wondering about the interest of maintaining the health pass beyond November 15.

So far, so good. The positive momentum that started at the end of August continued beyond the most optimistic forecasts. Nationally, the incidence fell below 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants over a period of seven days. There are now fewer than 5,000 new cases in 24 hours, and intensive care units record fewer than 50 daily admissions compared to more than a hundred on September 15.

With only two weeks before the All Saints holidays, the impact of the return to school in September has not been felt. “Even in the event of a recovery, the catastrophic scenarios which have led in the past to curfew or containment measures seem to be ruled out”, analysis Simon Cauchemez, member of the Scientific Council and modeler at the Institut Pasteur, in Paris. The researcher has just published new modeling work on epidemic dynamics.

Vigilance remains

Nearly 50 million French people are fully vaccinated and, if the effectiveness of vaccines

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