DECRYPTION – In the worst-case scenario of the Pasteur Institute, the number of daily contaminations could reach 40,000 in 1er August … which would cause, from the beginning of September, a higher peak of hospitalization than that of the first wave.
While the summer promised to be epidemic calm, the arrival of the Delta variant has shaken up the forecasts. The incidence is now on the rise, and saturation of the hospital system can no longer be ruled out for the end of August. “Last May, we worked on mathematical models that explored recovery scenarios with virus transmission rates (effective R) below 1.3, explains Simon Cauchemez, head of the laboratory for the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases at the Institut Pasteur and member of the scientific council. However, we observe that the effective R of the Delta variant is now closer to 2. This means that it takes between four and ten days for the number of cases linked to this variant to double. ”
“We were very surprised to see that the level of transmission of the Delta variant in France corresponds to the high margins of what has been observed in other countries., adds Vittoria Colizza, research director at
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