Legislative 2022: four blocs in search of a majority



► The Macronist majority wants to expand

Re-elected, Emmanuel Macron must now focus on the June legislative election. The challenge is twofold: to broaden and structure his majority for his second term. Its renewal indeed gives a new impetus to its founding ambition: to bring together the right and the left of government. It is a fact, their respective candidate was rolled in the first round: 4.8% for Valérie Pécresse (LR) and 1.8% for Anne Hidalgo (PS). Especially since these former dominant parties are affected nationally but not sunk locally. In short, they constitute an interesting pool of local elected officials to draw candidates established in the legislative elections.

→ ANALYSIS. Presidential 2022: a continuity program for Emmanuel Macron

The Élysée knows it nevertheless: the situation will not be the same as five years ago. Except surprise, LREM should no longer reach, alone, half of the seats. He will therefore have to deal with his allies: the MoDem of François Bayrou; the “right wing”, driven by the popularity of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (Horizons); the “left wing”, inaudible and invisible during the first quinquennium but henceforth useful to give the majority a social and ecological tint.

► Jean-Luc Mélenchon displays his ambitions

Third man in the presidential election, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (22%) immediately asked the French to“elect as prime minister”, in other words to impose cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron after the legislative elections. Displaying this ambition allows him, on the one hand, to maintain around himself the electoral mobilization for this election. And, on the other hand, to establish its domination on the left, after having finished far ahead of the other candidates in the first round, Yannick Jadot (EELV, 4.6%), Fabien Roussel (PCF, 2.3%) then Anne Hidalgo (SP, 1.8%).

As of April 14, Julien Bayou, national secretary of EELV, proposed to La France insoumise to “build a non-competition pact”. Then, on April 19, the national council of the PS approved the proposal of the first secretary, Olivier Faure, to“to engage in discussions” with the other forces of the left. The prospect was not obvious, since in power the PS has always led a policy compatible more with Emmanuel Macron than with Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

The dialogue is therefore open on the left, but the negotiations promise to be tight. LFI offers a basis for the distribution of nominations “established by voters in the first round”. While the PS wishes to take into account “also local elections”not to mention automatic support for leavers.

► Marine Le Pen wants to transform the test

The voting system for the legislative elections, single-member with two rounds, is unfavorable to the National Rally (RN), which has little local presence and is politically isolated. In 2017, the RN (ex-FN) had only obtained six deputies and two relatives. What will happen this year, after 23.2% then 41.5% in the presidential election? Difficult to say, especially since, now, the RN faces competition from the new party Reconquest!, Eric Zemmour (7.1% in the first round).

In fact, two different logics clash within the extreme right. Mayor RN of Perpignan, Louis Aliot has already mentioned the constitution of“a popular bloc against an elite bloc”. Theorized by the political analyst Jérôme Sainte-Marie, the notion of “popular bloc” was also taken over by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Around divergent programs, it is in both cases to address the losers of neoliberalism.

→ STORY. Presidential 2022: Marine Le Pen never so close, always far

Éric Zemmour, on the other hand, called for the formation of a “national bloc”which would combine Reconquest!, the National Rally, Debout la France by Nicolas Dupont-Aignanand those of the Republicans who do not want to rally to Emmanuel Macron “. The RN, however, closed the door to this alliance after Éric Zemmour’s comments on “the eighth time that defeat strikes the name of Le Pen” to a presidential election.

► The right wants to prove that it exists

Against all odds, despite the score of their candidate in the first round (Valérie Pécresse, 4.8%), the Republicans want to prove to the legislative elections that they exist and that they are fungible neither in macronism nor in lepenism”. However, the situation continues to get more complicated for the right, with a continuous flow of departures to the Macronist center since 2017.

Between the two rounds, the former President of the Republic Nicolas Sarkozy himself urged his political family to respond to Emmanuel Macron’s call for a rally». Many personalities have already approved it, such as Jean-François Copé (mayor of Meaux) and two presidents of regional councils, Christelle Morançais (Pays de la Loire) and Jean Rottner (Grand Est).

The Macron-compatible wing of LR, the one that is more liberal than conservative, however wonders about the right time for a rapprochement, which would then strengthen the “right wing” of the majority: before or after the legislative elections? With a scenario dreaded by the Élysée: needing the support of a maintained LR group in order to reach more than half of the seats in the National Assembly, and therefore to be able to govern.

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