Eric Zemmour, if he is a candidate, is credited with 15% of the voting intentions in the first round of the 2022 presidential election and would come third behind Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for franceinfo and The Parisian-Today in France, published Friday October 1st. Voting intentions for the polemicist are up 7 points compared to the same poll at the beginning of September.
In this poll, Eric Zemmour is on the verge of qualifying for the second round, because he collects only 1 to 2 points less – depending on the hypotheses – than Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the National Rally, who she obtains between 16 and 17% of voting intentions. The polemicist benefits from vote transfers from the right and the far right. It is also the RN candidate that he takes the most voters since, if Éric Zemmour is not a candidate, Marine Le Pen collects 25% of the voting intentions, or up to 9 percentage points of more.
He also takes voters to the right because each of these potential candidates, whether it is Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse or Michel Barnier, wins 2 to 3 percentage points in his absence. Eric Zemmour’s candidacy would even siphon off that of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Debout la France) who would then lose 2.5 to 3.5 percentage points, from 4% or 5% of voting intentions to 1.5 %.
On the other hand, the consequences of Eric Zemmour’s candidacy on Emmanuel Macron’s electoral results also depend on the candidate that the right-wing voters choose. The outgoing president collects 24% of the voting intentions if Xavier Bertrand and Éric Zemmour are candidates, but 25% if the polemicist is not. We observe the same progression of 1 to 1.5 percentage points in voting intentions for Emmanuel Macron, in the models where Valérie Pécresse or Michel Barnier represents the right.
The candidacy of the polemicist does not change anything for the left candidates either: the leader of France rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon is given at 9%, tied with the ecologist Yannick Jadot (which goes to 9.5% if Michel Barnier is the candidate of the right), and the socialist Anne Hidalgo obtains 5.5%, regardless of the other candidates. These figures do not change or hardly change if Éric Zemmour is a candidate. We note that these three left-wing candidates obtain a total of 23.5% of the voting intentions. If the left unites and if Éric Zemmour was a candidate, it could therefore qualify for the second round of the presidential election against Emmanuel Macron.
For now, the first round of the presidential election does not yet motivate voters much, because only half are sure to vote, 14% are almost certain to go, while 36% may not. not be voting.
The Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for franceinfo and “Le Parisien / Today in France” was carried out on the internet on September 29 and 30, 2021 on a sample of 1,500 people registered on electoral lists representative of the major French population.