Presidential: Éric Zemmour goes up, Marine Le Pen down, Emmanuel Macron stable in the lead, according to our survey

franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.

As the duel tightens between Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour to clinch a place for second place in the presidential election, a new Ipsos Sopra-Steria poll for franceinfo and The Parisian Today-in-France shows an increase in voting intentions for Éric Zemmour (+2 points) to 14% compared to the previous study, on January 7. Thus, 64 days from the first round of the presidential election, the two far-right candidates are now tied since Marine Le Pen, candidate of the National Rally, drops to 14% (-3 points).

The successive rallies to Éric Zemmour of personalities from the RN and LR have a link with this slight rebound of the Reconquest candidate! ? “Possible, but not certain”according to Mathieu Gallard, director of studies in the public affairs department at Ipsos. “They are not well-known personalities either, they do not bring elements of competence to Éric Zemmour”.

On the other hand, notes Mathieu Gallard, “These rallies have created a little music with the radical electorate who hesitates, suddenly Valérie Pécresse stands out a little and seems the favorite to reach the second round”. The Republican candidate Valérie Pécresse is indeed progressing very slightly and reaches 16.5% of voting intention (+0.5 point) and is in second position behind Emmanuel Macron. The Head of State, who is still not an official candidate, thus remains in the lead, for the moment, in voting intentions even if his lead is slightly reduced compared to January with 24% (-1.5 points ).

On the left, the situation is hardly changing. The poll was carried out two days after Christiane Taubira’s victory in the popular Primary, and the former Keeper of the Seals does not benefit from this victory in the voting intentions. “The Popular Primary clearly had no effect on the candidacy of Christiane Taubira”, points out Mathieu Gallard. It is at 4% of voting intentions (+1%), ahead of the socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo stable at 3% and the communist Fabien Roussel with 3% (+1%), and behind the ecologist Yannick Jadot who collects 8% (+1%) and the Insoumis Jean-Luc Mélenchon stable at 9%. The director of studies in the public affairs department at Ipsos notes that if we combine the scores on the left, we only reach 27% of the votes. “Even if a left-wing candidate experiences momentum in the coming weeks, it will be difficult for the left to win this presidential election”he notes.

This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France was carried out from February 1 to 3, 2022 on a sample of 1,535 people registered on the electoral lists, representative of the French population aged 18 and over.

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