LR is “by far, the party which collects the most votes”, estimated Christian Jacob, president of the political party, after the announcement of the results, Sunday, June 20. With 28.4%, The Republicans and their allies are holding up well compared to previous regional elections, according to an Ipsos / Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions. In 2015, the right-wing lists as a whole won around 27% of the votes cast in the first round.
In detail, the right is leading in six regions. It is in particular in front of in the Pays de la Loire (34%), in Normandy (35.1%) and in the Grand Est (30.2%). En Ile-de-France, Valérie Pécresse dominates this first round with 34.7%. Dn Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand flew over the election with 42.1% of the vote, far ahead of the RN candidate Sébastien Chenu, who won 24.5% of the vote. En Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Laurent Wauquiez is also very well placed for the second round with 42.7% of the vote. “Republicans are also making progress thanks to the personalities of these three charismatic figures who are well known to voters.”, believes Martial Foucault, director of Cevipof.
Outside the Paca region, where LR Renaud Muselier (33%) is beaten by RN candidate Thierry Mariani (35.5%), all the outgoing presidents are leading this first round, regardless of the political label. . “It’s a success for the leavers, confirms Olivier Rouquan, political scientist, associate researcher at the Center for Studies and Research in Administrative and Political Sciences. “We cannot speak of dynamics because of the few voters, but we are on a success of the Republicans, and to a lesser extent of the PS, in terms of consolidating strongholds.”
“The leavers are more visible than the others, reassuring for the electorate because they are identified, already in business, and they have managed the Covid-19 crisis …”Olivier Rouquan, political scientist
With these good regional scores, the right wing offers itself the luxury of avoiding long negotiations in certain regions. The head of the LREM list in Hauts-de-France, Laurent Pietraszewski, has already called to vote in the second round for Xavier Bertrand (ex-LR) against the RN, recognizing his elimination at the end of the first round with his 9 , 1%. “LREM is not in a position to be regional kingmakers, to make or break the results of the second round”, confirms the political scientist Martial Foucault.
In some regions, the right could still be tempted by a rapprochement with the presidential majority to try to block the left, as in Center-Val de Loire. In this region, the socialist president is at 25.5%, but the LR candidate is not so far with a little more than 18% and he can ogle the 16.3% of the LREM / Modem Marc Fesneau, minister in charge Relations with Parliament. In the Pays de la Loire, Christelle Morancais could also be tempted to consolidate her lead in the first round (34%) by finding common ground with former minister François de Rugy (11.7%) who, for the moment, decided to stand.
Sensing a trap set by the presidential majority, Christian Jacob once again stressed on TF1 that he was not in favor of mergers of lists in the second round. “We saw it in the municipal elections, mergers often generate confusion in the electorate”, he estimated. “But the decision will be up to the local teams. The Republicans will not be able to define a national line.”, judge Martial Foucault.
With these regions, the right is therefore recovering its health, after its catastrophic score in the European elections of 2019, and thus confirms its good local establishment outlined in the municipal elections. “The Republicans are in the process of knowing what happened to the PS. They are in the process of establishing themselves at the local level, while no longer succeeding in convincing the voters at the national level”, adds Martial Foucault.
But several personalities intend to use these elections as a springboard towards the presidential election. With 34.7%, Valérie Pécresse is improving compared to the first round of 2015 (30.5%). But it is especially Laurent Wauquiez (42.7%) and Xavier Bertrand (42.1%) which marked the spirits, by gaining respectively 12 and 17 points compared to 2015. “In view of the results, they are more or less equal, the two come out fairly winners, considers Olivier Rouquan. They will capitalize within LR on this first good result. “
“This will not make life easy within LR in the coming months, because we will have to arbitrate.”Olivier Rouquan, political scientist
“Indeed, this good result does not help LR’s business on the appointment of their candidate, confirms Martial Foucault. Bertrand like Wauquiez achieved a very high score. They will be able to be pumped up to the max before the presidential election with the legitimacy of this first-round score. ” Laurent Wauquiez quickly addressed his voters to comment on his score: “Your choice is clear, it is a mark of confidence.” Xavier Bertrand also congratulated himself on his result: “Here, we have loosened, in order to break them, the jaws of the National Front, their demagoguery, their sterile proposals, their intolerance.”
The Republicans have already announced that they will survey 15,000 supporters to find a personality to “rally” for the presidential election. “Either we have a candidate who crushes the match, or we will be on a selection process that we will prepare beforehand”, then explained Christian Jacob. But, for his part, Xavier Bertrand has already announced at Figaro Magazine (article for subscribers) that he would be “the candidate of the republican right” during the presidential election.