The unknowns of the fourth wave of Covid-19

DECRYPTION – With the Delta variant, the number of cases doubles every five days, a level never before measured in the country since the start of the first wave.

While we thought we were safe from an epidemic resumption during the summer, the prospect of seeing an explosion of severe cases as early as August can no longer be ruled out. The virus transmission rate, the effective R, calculated on daily contaminations is now estimated between 1.5 and 2, when the Institut Pasteur’s projections envisaged in their most pessimistic scenarios a recovery with an R of 1.3 . Henceforth each infected person infects nearly two others.

The number of cases is doubling every five days, a level not measured in the country since the start of the first wave. “Outside of March 2020 we measured two peaks at 1.3, in August 2020 and in October 2020, recalls Mircea Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier. This record increase can be explained by the Delta variant, but also by the lifting of the last restrictive measures on June 30. ” The fourth wave is

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