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These models that convinced Emmanuel Macron to refine


DECRYPTION – Epidemiological forecasts draw a situation out of control, already more serious than in the spring.

A laboratory technician analyzes samples with the PCR method to detect Covid-19, on October 28, in Ivry-sur-Seine.
A laboratory technician analyzes samples with the PCR method to detect Covid-19, on October 28, in Ivry-sur-Seine. LUDOVIC MARIN / AFP

The head of state explained Wednesday evening that the containment was mandatory if we wanted to prevent the epidemic from killing 400,000. This figure comes from models produced by the Institut Pasteur, and published on September 9 in Nature Reviews Immunology (the very day when Jean-François Delfraissy explained that “Difficult decisions” should be taken by the government).

“We mentioned that in the absence of significant improvement in patient care, and on the basis of published mortality rates for populations with an age structure similar to that of France (between 0.3% and 1 , 3%), one could expect a total mortality of 100,000 to 450,000 people before reaching a collective immunity of 50% ”, explains to Figaro Simon Cauchemez, responsible for these projections and member of the Scientific Council. “Another way to arrive at these figures would be to consider that in the French context it took 30,000 deaths to obtain 5%

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