Will Covid-19 cause as many deaths in 2022 as in 2020 and 2021?


THE CHEKING PROCESS – While the epidemic is receding worldwide, it continues to wreak havoc. Epidemiologist Antoine Flahault believes that the toll for 2022 could be as heavy as in past years. Is it believable?

THE QUESTION. Covid-19 rarely makes headlines anymore. Better yet, as the good weather sets in, the epidemic sometimes even seems to be relegated to oblivion. Yet more than a hundred people die every day in France from the disease… According to epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, 2022 could be as macabre as 2020 and 2021 were with more than 60,000 deaths. Is this a believable number?

LET’S CHECK. According to the count of Public Health France, there have been nearly 22,000 Covid deaths in the country since January 1. If we mathematically project this total over 365 days, we arrive at 66,000 dead at the end of the year. Roughly the same number as the two previous years.

The exercise is nonetheless perilous. Nothing allows us to predict what will happen in the coming weeks. The mortality peak for 2022 was reached in February with a total of 340 deaths per day (calculated on an average of seven rolling days)…

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