With vaccination, “we expect a 28% drop in hospitalizations”

INTERVIEW – Member of the Scientific Council, Simon Cauchemez has just published a study which models the impact of vaccines on the epidemic.

Simon Cauchemez is also responsible for the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases laboratory at the Institut Pasteur.

LE FIGARO. – After a slight plateau, the epidemic seems to start again. Is this the effect of variants?

Simon CAUCHEMEZ. – Current measures appear sufficient to control the historic strain of the virus. Unfortunately, as we feared, some variants are more contagious. They are becoming the majority and may be partly responsible for this epidemic resumption. The cumulative effect of the holidays and the cold snap has no doubt saved us a little time. But in recent days, this effect seems to be fading.

When will we see the impact of vaccines on the epidemic?

We have modeled the epidemic trajectories for the next few weeks by taking into account the planned deliveries of the various vaccines and by considering an efficiency of 90% (Editor’s note: these rates are confirmed by the first studies in real life, read opposite)

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